Global Effects of Cloud Computing

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Major high tech companies have announced plans for "cloud computing".  Although the concept has been around for a long time under various names, there is much controversy regarding what it is and how significant a role it will play in our future.
Introduction Not too long ago I received an EMAIL from The Motley Fool promoting investments in companies involved in "cloud computing".  The Motley Fool went on to describe why cloud computing would dominate the future and how the technology adrove Bill Gates into retirement.  (You have to take The Motley Fool with a grain of salt and lots of alcohol.) Google is leading the bandwagon, having already introduced it's new search engine S/W and business offerings.  Microsoft, Yahoo and Amazon.com have also announced plans to offer cloud computing.  When such high tech giants make announcements to move in this direction you have to take notice. After doing some research on the topic it became clear to me that cloud computing meant different things to different people.  For some it meant that PC users would be able to tap into supercomputers.  For others it was a means to off-load IT chores onto an internet-based third party.  In this post I would like to share my thoughts regarding what it is, why it is important and it's impact on the environment. GM / Microsoft Comparison Lets rewind the time clock and go back about 30 years to a book written by John De Lorean called "On a Good Day You Can See General Motors".  The book describes the inside workings of General Motors.  (John De Lorean developed the De Lorean, coined the "ethical sports car".)  The following is a quote from the book: "I got the empty feeling that "what I am doing here may be nothing more than perpetuating a gigantic fraud," a fraud on the American consumer by promising him something new but giving him only the surface alterations....I always had the vague suspicion that the annual model change may be good for the auto business in the short term but that it wasn't good for the economy and the country. Couldn't the money we spend on annual, superficial styling changes be better spent in reducing prices or in improving service and reliability? Or seeking solutions to the sociological problems with which our products were creating in areas of pollution, energy consumption, safety, and congestion?" "A fault that GM has had for a long time is its feeling that, since it sells more cars and trucks than anyone else in the world and makes far more money than any other automotive company, the GM way is the only way." My opinion is that Microsoft is in the same boat now as GM was then.  GM offered new car models every year with superficial changes then convinced consumers that they were buying a new and improved automobile, whether the American public actually needed one or not. Microsoft makes it's money in the same fashion - by "respinning" the Windows Operating System and forcing businesses (and home users) to not only procure the new O.S. but also invest in new office tools at the same time.  But Microsoft can't milk this cow forever. What functional changes are being made that the user has to have?  Apart from internet-related tools, does the PC really provide better S/W then we had 20 years ago with the Macintosh?  Most people use their PCs for fairly menial tasks - word processing, internet surfing, spreadsheets.  Do we really need state-of-the-art dual core / quad pentiums and extremely sophisticated Microsoft "fat-ware" to do these tasks? OK, I concede that there are some applications that demand high performance PCs such as video games, CAD software, etc.  But the majority of people don't need the incredible performance or sophisitcation of today's machines. The writing is on the wall.  People are not rushing out to buy Microsoft Vista like previous versions.  Alternatives are springing up. alternatives such as Linux and the resurgence of the Apple Macintosh.  And now cloud computing may ultimately remove the need for a local operating system completely ... The Future of the PC The concept of cloud computing (as I see it) is to remove the operating system, S/W applications, disk storage and other functionality from the local PC. In the future the standard PC will simply consist of a monitor, keyboard, mouse, a local area network (probably wireless) and a USB port.  Scrap the hard drive, the GBytes of RAM, etc.  The operating system and applications will be executed on computers maintained by a company such as Google, Yahoo or Amazon.com. This will allow portable PCs to become much smaller, run longer on battery and be less expensive.  In fact, it is entirely conceivable that the cell-phone will become a true hand held portable computer. We are already seeing applications heading in this direction. For example, EMAIL app's such as Hotmail and My Yahoo's EMAIL system have been off-loaded from the local PC for some time.  You can travel anywhere and tap into your email.  In the future the same will hold true for your PC app's.  In the future you won't need to take your portable PC when you travel or risk your programs and data with a hard disk crash. Some other app's that have been off-loaded from your local computer include digital picture albums and hard drive backup (Zip is now offering this feature). Not only will computers become less expensive and require less electricity, but businesses will no longer have to hire IT staff.  IT support will come with the service (or utility). Security is a big argument against cloud computing.  But think about it.  How many small businesses have break-ins, PCs stolen along with the hard drives?  How many times have employees in your workplace lost valuable data because of a hard disk crash when data has not been properly backed up?  Cloud computing secures the data and companies such as Google are probably better equipped to prevent hackers from getting into a businesses system.  So I argue that security may actually be enhanced by cloud computing, not diminished. PC and the Environment A reasonable estimate puts the total number of PCs at 1 billion at the end of 2008, projected to rise to 2 billion by 2015.  The average PC/monitor combination consumes 588 kWh of electricity.  Therefore, the global electricity consumption for PCs is approximately 588 billion kWh per year.  With no change in technology this would double to 1.18 trillion kWh per year in 2015.  This amounts to approximately 1 billion tonnes of equivalent CO2 per year.   If technology does not change, the PC will certainly be a major contributor to climate change. By moving to cloud computing, the world's developing population will not only be more able to afford computers, but there will be significantly less toll on the environment, not only from the perspective of climate change but also our natural resources and pollution resulting from disposal of electronics. Doesn't Cloud Computing Just Shift the Burdon? Critics of cloud computing will undoubtably argue that the same resources are required but will simply be shifted from the consumer to central computer systems.  My response is NOT TRUE. First of all, as I stated before the average PC user has way more resources than he/she really needs.  By combining the computing power in centrally located facilities, the excess capacity can be eliminated.  The computer power will be shared - the user will get more computing power as the application demands it, similar to electricity use. Second, because the computing power is in central locations it opens up the possibility of more environment friendly methods for powering the computer systems such as a wind or solar farm, nuclear power generator or hydro power. Third, transmission of electricity is not very efficient.  By generating electrical power near the computer facilities a large amount of energy will be saved for the simple reason that it doesn't have to be transported large distances. Google Has it Right Google is not only positioning itself as the leader in cloud computing but, armed with billions of dollars cash, has been heavily investing in renewable energy sources.  In fact they recently applied for a patent on a floating data center.  The concept is to use the ocean to not only power the electronics but also to cool the electronics.  Read more... I hope you have enjoyed this glimpse into our future and why cloud computing is a must, not only for business reasons, but also for the global environment.

Comments

[Riffa]

I wrote this in response to a Google Chrome OS article. Just replace the word Google with your favorite company. I am posting this writing to every site I can find concerning cloud computing.
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This is a technological trap to the nth degree. I see a endless myriad of problems with cloud computing that benefit nothing to anybody except hosts, hackers, terrorist, and the government. If you like the idea of cloud computing, then you like the idea of all your personal work and data in the hands of every google tech and even the company receptionist. Ones argument for cloud computing must be.. why worry about losing my work and identity, when I can just give it away. That copyright or patent request ain't gonna do ya much good after some enterprising google employee notices your million dollar idea and decides he'd rather not work for a living anymore cause it is now his million dollar idea and he has the patent to prove it. My data is on my system. For you to get it means you have to get past my firewall, install your malware, get past my encryptions, and hope I don't catch your program reporting back to you. Even then you only have access to what your malware is programmed to access. For you to get *ALL* my data in a cloud, all you have to do is hack my password. Duhhh. Also, if you like the idea of cloud computing, then you also like idea of working slower and slower. IP's are complaining that a small percentage of file sharers are hogging the majority of their bandwidth. Whats gonna happen when EVERYBODY becomes a 'file sharer' with every file they have? You also realize the video streamers are just getting started dontcha? And as it's been pointed out, what's going to happen when there's a outage? Your new high tech 'dumb terminal' is going to need a host ya know. And screw hacking your little pc. Hackers are gonna hack EVERYBODY in one shot! And what about that disgruntled google employee? Terrorists are now drooling at the prospect that we are consolidating all our resources into one handy target. In this age of identity theft, I CANNOT believe that somebody would trust ANY their info to be in one place (accept their home). Even a TRUSTED place (cause there is no such thing). Its unfathomable! What OS and processors do you think goggles runnin right now? Would that be the easily hackable combination of Windows on Intel? Just one hacker access into a major hosts password file and cloud computing will be gone forever. Along with that company. It WILL happen. Cloud computing will prove itself to be a 'company ender' and these companies are racing to beat each other to that end. Which they FULLY DESERVE for trying to pull such a stunt. Cloud computing has got to be the most irresponsable concepts ever put forth by ANY industry. It is a gigantic backwards step in the evolution of information security at a time when information security is almost non-existent. It is a inherently flawed concept that benefits NOBODY but hackers, terrorist, the government, and hosting companies (till they get hacked that is). Cloud computing will only be used by two groups of people.. people who believe tabloids, and full blown certifiable idiots.

[Steve Auger]

Everyone has a right to an opinion, even when it is wrong. Secure data can be isolated and maintained independent from applications and operating systems provided the applications are programmed properly. End of story.