Hidden Smoke and Polished Mirrors

By Steve Auger

Editor's note:  This post was originally published October 7, 2008.   While there are still concept cars and demos (buses in particular),  the conclusions I reached 1 year ago are becoming evident - we won't be seeing hydrogen fuel cell automobiles for quite some time, if ever.

Will hydrogen fuel cells propel us into the future? Or is the technology simply smoke and mirrors? A critical examination is presented in this final BlogOnSmog post on fuel cell technology as applied to automobiles.

Hydrogen Fuel Cell - Background

This is the third and final post in the BlogOnSmog fuel cell automobile series.  In previous posts, I provided a brief history of fuel cells and their usage.   I would like to start by briefly digressing to my childhood. When I was a young lad, my father, an engineer by profession, would give me talks on various scientific topics.  He often told stories about attending lectures by Einstein's understudies, the big bang theory and many other interesting subjects in physics and mathematics.  

When I was 10 years old, my father explained to me that the hydrogen fuel cell would never be commercially viable.   Back then, I didn't know what a fuel cell was, but I did know my father - an industrial engineer, an independent thinker with a high I.Q.  So he must be right.

Now, 40 years later, I still read about fuel cells being the answer to our future energy needs.  And I still hear the same counter-arguments.  Nothing has changed in the last 40 years.  The same arguments apply today as they did 40 years ago.  The technologies have improved but the fundamentals have not.  In this post I hope to do some justice to the following questions that have been in the back of my mind for quite some time:

• How practical is a hydrogen-based economy?
• How close are fuel cells to mass-production?
• Will the average American be able to afford a hydrogen-based car?
• Who is behind the push for the hydrogen economy? 

Hydrogen Economy - The Promised Land

The year 2003 was a period when America was still in shock over the tragedy of 9/11.  America wanted answers, not only for the unspeakable crimes but also for the security of the nation.  In 2003,  President Bush announced that America's future rested with a hydrogen-based economy.  The hydrogen economy provided some answers.  America would end its' dependence on fossil fuels.  Terrorists would not be able to affect America by targeting foreign oil and gas supplies. 

Seems logical BUT ... Even in 2003, it was clear (to me) that a hydrogen-based future was not practical. Was President Bush mis-informed? Were his advisors incompetent? Or was Mr. Bush involved in political manipulation, similar to his rationale for invading Iraq? Certainly Bush and Cheney have strong ties to the oil industry.  Were oil companies pulling the strings?  We may never know but it is (or should be) clear  that a hydrogen-based economy is out of the question, for now and perhaps forever.

"I have not seen a viable, affordable plan to convert an economy to hydrogen," Greg Frenette, Ford's lead engineer on the technology, said in an interview last week in East Haddam, Conn. "It could well take until 2030."

Hydrogen Powered Cars - Available Now!???

Only a couple of years ago I was left with the impression that fuel cell technology was several decades away.  Major discoveries were required on multiple fronts to make this technology practical. Honda, a fuel cell leader, indicated that fuel cell cars would come with a $1 Million price tag.  Now I see fuel cell cars rolling off the show room floor. Demos, field trials, leases ... most manufacturers have something to offer. Is the technology really here?  Or is this smoke and mirrors?

"Employees and management at Ballard are mobilized around a single mission … to accelerate fuel cell product adoption."

Within the last year or two, car companies have accelerated their schedules. Now it is clear that fuel cell technology has a couple of major discoveries left before it reaches commercially viability. Platinum electrodes ($$$) are required.  Platinum is not only expensive but there is a limited supply.  The efficiency of pure hydrogen generation, transportation and storage are of major concern.  There are also issues with low temperature performance, fuel cell longevity/durability, infrastructure. The list goes on...

"the General has a 2010 target to design a fuel-cell vehicle that could be cost effective in high-volume production."

So how can car companies accelerate their schedules?  Can revolutionary discoveries be scheduled?  What is the motivation for accelerating the development of this technology?  

"If someone can make an electric vehicle with reasonable range, that may kill fuel cells," Duleep said in an interview  from Arlington, Va

One of the major factors driving the fuel cell industry is the rapid advance of lithium-ion battery technology.  Lithium-ion batteries are more environmentally friendly than NiCad or lead batteries and increases the energy density, making plug-in hybrids more attractive to the average driver.   Lithium-Ion batteries have been a major shot in the arm for hybrid plug-ins. And there are other technologies coming to fruition such as air compression technology . So the accelerated fuel cell schedules are likely due to pressure exerted by competing technical solutions. Imagine the VHS/Betamax and Blu-ray/HD-DVD wars but on a grander scale. The bottom line is that the car companies need to show some working hydrogen fuel cell technology NOW or be left on the starting block.

"A spokesman for GM recently predicted that 4 out of 5 cars sold in the year 2020 will be fuel efficient hybrids as a result of increasingly tougher emissions standards."

They not only need to show working hardware but provide the image of a technology that is nearly production-ready. But what is the motivation?  Most automobile companies offer hybrids, alternative fuel options, and are working on plug-in hybrids, etc.  They have their bases covered.  What is the motivation for fuel cell cars? 

Let's think about this.  As long as the American politicians buy in to the hydrogen economy the oil companies will have decades to shift their business models. And the oil distributors will ultimately be best positioned to offer a new hydrogen infrastructure.  Not only that, but the hydrogen economy really doesn't eliminate the requirement for fossil fuels.  Hydrogen production is so inefficient that it may actually increase the demand for fossil fuels.  But along comes those annoying hybrid plug-ins, ready for mass production.  Infrastructure? Well - we already have an electrical grid. 

This technology not only threatens the future of the hydrogen fuel cell but also the future of the oil companies.   Is it possible that Bush and Cheney's buddies, the oil companies, are running scared?   And the car companies would love to sell their gas guzzlers for as long as possible.  Why not stretch this out a couple more decades?

Honda Clarity FCX - Stepping Up to the Plate

Honda is first out of the gate with their next generation fuel cell - smaller, more power, more efficient...  Not only is this the most practical fuel cell design to date, Honda has started a limited production run of 200 Honda Clarity FCX's.

 

"the Clarity's fuel-cell stack is located under the driver's right arm, is 65 percent smaller by volume, packs 17 percent more power (100 kW or 136 horses), and it can start at temperatures as low as -22 degrees F (owed to its vertical, gravity-drain water path). Combined with its co-axial and compact motor/gearbox up front, lithium battery pack under the rear seat, and single, 5000psi storage tank behind the rear passengers, the Clarity is brilliantly laid out."

The 200 Clarity FCXs are being leased to select individuals at a cost of $600 per month over three years in Los Angeles, where some of the existing hydrogen fuel stations are located.  What is not evident is the retail cost of the automobile, expected life time, re-fueling cost and expected maintenance costs.  When asked about the lease cost, a Honda representative indicated that they were targeting the ultimate user, individuals making $150,000 and up.  When the Clarity FCX makes it's way to into production (if ever),  the Honda Clarity FCX car will not be priced for the average American.

General Motors, the biggest U.S. automaker, is testing roughly 100 fuel cell vehicles in three U.S. cities with regular consumers with the intent of starting production as early as 2012.

"General Motors is tooling up to start producing fuel cell cars, announcing today that it's moving more than 500 fuel cell engineers from research into development...  The transition is aimed at expediting the company's efforts to produce vehicles that displace petroleum through energy diversity.  "This says, 'Not only have we done it in a lab, we're ready to do it for real,'" Larry Burns, GM's vice president for research and development told the Detroit News."

Toyota is also jumping onto the bandwagon by announcing a version of fuel cell car based on a hybrid concept (fuel cell + electric motor) similar to the very successful Toyota Prius concept.

"Toyota last week announced it, too, will begin leasing a new hydrogen-powered, emissions-free fuel cell car. The FCHV-adv will be available later this year in Japan"

In all of these public announcements none of the auto manufacturer's  are addressing the real world issues - hydrogen infrastructure, car retail price, cost of hydrogen fuel, maintenance (including mechanic training), reliability/durability, etc. 

Up and Coming or Swan Song?

It is possible that some auto manufacturers have sunk a great deal of money into fuel cell development and are in too deep.  The remainder have their fingers in the pie just in case the fuel cell turns out to be the technology of choice.  One never knows with American politics.  In any case the jury is out as to whether the hydrogen economy is up and coming or this is the final swan song.  But let's consider some facts.

1. Fuel cell vehicles are powered by an electric motor.  Hydrogen is used as an electrical storage medium, not as fuel.   Comparing apples to apples, one has to compare the efficiency of hydrogen as a storage medium versus lithium-ion batteries and other available storage mediums.  To isolate hydrogen from water yields about one-third the usable energy that the electricity could provide if stored in a simple battery and used in an electric car.  Then the hydrogen must be compressed into a liquid fuel to provide a practical range.
2. The cost of hydrogen converted to equivalent gas price is $10.00 per gallon.
   
3. Hydrogen cars are no “greener” than the energy required to provide the hydrogen.  Therefore a fuel cell car is much less environmentally friendly than a totally electric car.  This assumes you ignore the disposal of the batteries of course.
4. The fuel cell output - water vapor - is the most abundant greenhouse gas.  This is neglected by most if not all media reports.
   
5. Hydrogen fuel cells do nothing to eliminate America's dependence on fossil fuels.  If anything this technology will increase the dependency on fossil fuels.
6. Hydrogen fuel cells do not work in overly cold, humid or dry conditions.
7. Retail price puts the technology out of reach for the average consumer.
8. The hydrogen infrastructure is decades (or maybe a century) away.
   

So I will let the reader be the judge.  The smoke is still there - but it has been transferred from the engine to the utility company.  The mirrors are very polished, shiny enough to make believers out of the uneducated public.